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Mortgage News

Rate Drop Prompts Jump in Refi Application Volume

March 13 2024

A surge in refinance applications drove mortgage application volume higher for the second straight time last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, 8.0 percent before adjustment.   Refinancing was 12.0 percent higher than the previous week and surpassed the Refinancing Index level during the same week in 2024 by 5.0 percent. Refinancing accounted for 31.6 percent of applications, up from 30.2 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 5.0 percent from one week earlier and was 6.0 percent higher unadjusted, remaining 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.   [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates dropped below 7 percent last week for most loan types because of incoming economic data showing a weaker service sector and a less robust job market, with an increase in the unemployment rate and downward revisions to job growth in prior months,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume increased for the week but remains about 11 percent below last year’s level. By contrast, refinance volume picked up by 12 percent, with a larger, 24 percent increase in the government refinance index. While these percentage increases are large, the level of refinance activity remains quite low, and we expect that most of this activity reflects borrowers who took out a loan at or near the peak of rates in the past two years .”

Housing Data Showing Positive Signs, Mortgage Apps Up 9.7%

March 06 2024

Whether prompted by a tiny improvement in mortgage rates or the first stirrings of a spring market, mortgage activity reversed course last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12.0 percent. The Refinance Index gained 8.0 percent during the week ended March 1, trailing the same week in 2023 by 2.0 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 30.2 percent from 31.2 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The index measuring purchase applications jumped 11,0 percent higher on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13.0 percent before adjustment. The index was 8.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] "The latest data on inflation was not markedly better nor worse than expected, which was enough to bring mortgage rates down a bit, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining slightly last week to 7.02 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications were up considerably relative to the prior week, which included the President's Day holiday. Of note, purchase volume – particularly for FHA loans – was up strongly, again showing how sensitive the first-time homebuyer segment is to relatively small changes in the direction of rates. Other sources of housing data are showing increases in new listings, which is a real positive for the spring buying season given the lack of for-sale inventory. "

Pending Home Sales Still Bouncing Along The Bottom

March 01 2024

Sometimes you'll see coverage of economic data that conforms to certain template with a predictable details and word counts.  Rarely, the word count will reflect the pace of change in the underlying data series.  That's what you're dealing with here. Existing home sales have been depressed since late 2022 and bouncing along the bottom ever since. Pending Home Sales is just another way to view the same problem.  Instead of closed transactions, it measures contract signings, thus providing a sort of sneak peak and next month's Existing Home Sales potential.  With that in mind, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Existing Sales slip back down after the monthly increase reported last week.  Here's why: For those who are uncomfortable without a higher word count, here are a few regional bullet points showing the month over month and year over year change (%): Northeast  + 0.8% (down 5.5% annually) Midwest     - 7.6%  (down 11.6% annually) South        - 7.3%  (down 9.0% annually) West          +0.5%  (down 7.0% annually)

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